Signal Generation

Overview

The signal generation module produces actionable trading plans delivered to consumers daily. Signals are constrained by strict risk management rules.

Constraints

Rule	Value	Rationale
Max signals per day	3	Quality over quantity
Max hold time	30 minutes	Scalping/day-trade focus
Execution	Manual	Human confirms and executes
Min confluence score	0.65	High-probability setups only

Signal Structure

Each signal contains:

interface TradingSignal {
  // Identification
  id: string;
  timestamp: string;
  pair: string;
  
  // Direction
  direction: 'BUY' | 'SELL';
  
  // Levels
  entry_price: number;
  stop_loss: number;
  take_profit: number;
  
  // Meta
  confidence: number;        // 0.0 - 1.0
  reasoning: string[];       // List of confirming factors
  time_window: string;       // Optimal entry window
  max_hold_minutes: number;  // Always ≤ 30
  
  // Risk
  risk_reward_ratio: number; // Minimum 1:1.5
  position_size_pct: number; // % of capital suggested
}

Daily Plan Format

Delivered each trading day before market open:

## 📊 Daily Trading Plan — 2026-07-16

### Market Bias
- EUR/USD: Bullish (1H EMA trend up)
- GBP/USD: Neutral (ranging)

### Signals (Max 3)

#### Signal 1: EUR/USD BUY
- **Entry**: 1.0892 (on pullback to VWAP)
- **Stop Loss**: 1.0875 (-17 pips)
- **Take Profit**: 1.0920 (+28 pips)
- **R:R**: 1:1.65
- **Window**: 09:00-09:30 UTC
- **Confidence**: 82%
- **Reasoning**: 
  - Bullish engulfing on 5m
  - RSI bouncing from 35
  - VWAP support holding
  - London session momentum

#### Signal 2: ...

### Key Levels to Watch
- EUR/USD: Support 1.0870, Resistance 1.0935
- GBP/USD: Support 1.2640, Resistance 1.2710

### Risk Notes
- ⚠️ NFP data release at 13:30 UTC — avoid new positions 30min before
- Volume expected to increase London/NY overlap (13:00-16:00 UTC)

Delivery Channels

Channel	Method	Timing
Discord	Webhook/Bot message	Pre-market (06:00 UTC)
API	REST endpoint	On-demand
Email	SMTP notification	Optional digest

Signal Validation Rules

Before a signal is emitted, it must pass:

1. Confluence check — Score ≥ 0.65
2. Risk/Reward check — R:R ≥ 1:1.5
3. Time filter — Within active session hours
4. Correlation filter — No conflicting signals on correlated pairs
5. News filter — No high-impact events within hold window
6. Daily limit — Max 3 signals not exceeded
7. Spread check — Current spread within acceptable range

Performance Tracking

Track all signals for continuous improvement:

CREATE TABLE signal_performance (
    signal_id TEXT PRIMARY KEY,
    pair TEXT,
    direction TEXT,
    entry_price REAL,
    exit_price REAL,
    pnl_pips REAL,
    hold_time_minutes INTEGER,
    outcome TEXT,  -- 'TP_HIT', 'SL_HIT', 'TIME_EXIT', 'MANUAL_EXIT'
    created_at DATETIME
);

Target Metrics:

• Win rate: > 55%
• Average R:R achieved: > 1.3
• Max consecutive losses: < 5
• Monthly Sharpe: > 1.5